Ponca City, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

362
FXUS66 KPQR 091048
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
348 AM PDT Sat May 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure remains the dominant synoptic feature
through the weekend, keeping most locations dry with daytime
high temperatures mostly controlled by reoccurring marine cloud
development each night. A weak shortwave Sunday will knock
temperatures down a bit, but this will be short lived as the
upcoming week trends warmer. However, confidence drops quickly
on just how warm it gets by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Now through Friday...High pressure continues to
slowly build over the region today, which is keeping marine
stratus from forming over the CWA. This is a stark departure
from the past 48 hours. Thus, expect daytime highs in the low
60s to low 70s along the coast and higher terrain, with inland
valleys generally in the low to upper 70s, with some areas
possibly warming into the low 80s.

Sunday (Mother`s Day) brings a subtle change as a weak shortwave
slides across the Pac NW. The most noticeable effect should be
an increase in cloud cover along with a slight cool-down, but
the day still looks favorable for outdoor plans. Inland highs
should generally hold in the low to mid 70s, while the coast and
higher terrain remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Looking forward through the middle of next week, ensemble
guidance increasingly supports ridging rebuilding and temperatures
trending upward again for the first part of the week. The
primary question for Monday and Tuesday will be: Where will the
ridge axis set up? If the axis develops farther west, which is
currently favored by the GFS and its ensembles will result in a
much warmer solution as 850 mb temperatures of 16-18 degrees C
are supported. These 850 mb temperatures would translate to low
70s to mid 80s daytime highs. If the ridge axis settles more
easterly, this will result in a relatively cooler solution.
Currently, the ECMWF and its ensembles favor this scenario. 850
mb temperatures in this case would be in the 14-17 degrees C.
which would support daytime highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Either solution is pointing towards Tuesday being the hottest
day, but as alluded to, overall confidence is low at this time.
Or as a co-worker put it so elegantly: Potential outcomes span
from "pleasantly warm" to "unseasonably hot". Looking towards
the latter part of the upcoming week, guidance has at least
come into better agreement. The GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles
are showing an upper level low making landfall somewhere between
northern California and southern Oregon. Which is significantly
better than the solutions shown 24 hours ago. Overall, this low
will move push the upper level ridge further eastward and bring
about a noticeable cooling trend to the region. Still, while
the temperature spread becomes narrower by Thursday, it remains
highly dependent on the progression of the synoptic pattern.
/42~12

&&

.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft continues as an upper level ridge
of high pressure builds over the region, resulting in predominately
VFR conditions across the airspace. Light offshore winds expected
to turn northerly on Saturday with skies remaining mostly clear.

This is where the forecast gets complicated. Most guidance, along
with pattern recognition, point towards VFR conditions persisting
through the TAF period. However, there have been periods of
intermittent, MVFR to LIFR conditions within the southern
Willamette Valley as well as areas south of KTMK to K6S2, which
does include KONP. Given that information there is a 10-15% chance
for lowered flight conditions to develop at any hour through 17Z
Saturday. Any lowered flight conditions that do linger from now
through 16Z Saturday, will improve to VFR by 20Z Saturday.
Afterwards, expect VFR under mostly clear skies through the
remainder of the TAF period.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR through the TAF period.
Light and variable winds becoming northwest around less than 6
kt after 18Z Saturday. /42

&&

.MARINE...Southerly winds will become more northerly as high
pressure develops over the region today. Overall, will see winds
of 6 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. The highest winds are
expected in zones PZZ253 and PZZ273 with a 10-20% chance of
isolated gusts up 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft at 10 to 12 seconds.
These conditions are expected to persist through Sunday.

There is a shift on Monday as there is the potential for a low
pressure system to move into the northeastern Pacific. Confidence
is low at this point as there are a number of potential outcomes.
However, at this time, we are expecting the northerly winds to
persist and intensify on Monday with a trend towards Small Craft
Advisory level speeds through Tuesday. This would be amplified by
a surface ridge forming and thus seeing a typical summertime
northerly wind speed paradigm. /42-27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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